Abstract

The African citrus psyllid, Trioza erytreae (Del Guercio) (Hemiptera, Triozidae), is native to tropical Africa and invasive species in North America and Europe. The main host plants are citrus, displaying a preference for lemon trees. This psyllid was recently detected in the northwest region of the Iberian Peninsula, both in Spain and Portugal. Here, we used a model combining a reaction-diffusion model to a stochastic long-distance dispersal model to simulate the invasion dynamics of T. erytreae in Portugal. The psyllid spread in Portugal was simulated between 2015 and 2021 for different combinations of model parameters: two fecundity levels; spread with and without stochastic long-distance dispersal; single or two introductions of T. erytreae; and considering or not the urban and peri-urban citrus trees, besides citrus orchards, estimated using Google Street view imagery. The incorporation of long-distance human mediated dispersal significantly improved the F1-score in the model validation using the official reports as the observed data. Concomitantly, the dispersal rate of T. erytreae in Portugal was on average about 66 km/year, whereas removing long-distance dispersal events, the observed mean was 7.8 ± 0.3 km/year. The dispersal was mainly towards the south along the coastline, where human population is concentrated. The inclusion of the estimated citrus trees outside orchards areas significantly increased the F1-score in the model validation, revealing the importance these isolated host plants hold as stepping stones for the species current invasion and possibly for other species alike.

Addeddate

2025-04-02 02:19:35

Bhl_virtual_titleid

210923

Bhl_virtual_volume

v.84 (2023)

Call number

10_3897_neobiota_84_91540

Call-number

10_3897_neobiota_84_91540

Foldoutcount

0

Genre

article

Identifier

modellinginvasi84nune

Identifier-ark

ark:/13960/s2gd667kt92

Identifier-bib

10_3897_neobiota_84_91540

Identifier-doi

10.3897/neobiota.84.91540

Ocr

tesseract 5.3.0-6-g76ae

Ocr_detected_lang

en

Ocr_detected_lang_conf

1.0000

Ocr_detected_script

Latin

Ocr_detected_script_conf

1.0000

Ocr_module_version

0.0.21

Ocr_parameters

-l eng

Page_number_confidence

87

Page_number_module_version

1.0.5

Page_range

369-396

Pages

28

Pdf_degraded

invalid-jp2-headers

Pdf_module_version

0.0.25

Possible copyright status

In copyright. Digitized with the permission of the rights holder.

Ppi

300

Source

NeoBiota 84

Year

2023

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